New Econ for Life Actuaries
نویسندگان
چکیده
In an editorial in ASTIN BULLETIN, Hans Bühlmann (2002) suggests it is time to change the teaching of life insurance theory towards the real life challenges of that industry. The following note is a response to this editorial. In Bergen we have partially taught the NUMAT, or the NUMeraire based Actuarial Teaching since the beginning of the 90ties at the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH). In this short note we point out that there may be some practical problems when these principles are to be implemented. Actuarial Mathematics vs Financial Economics As recognized by Bühlmann the model used in Life Insurance Mathematics is built on the two elements: (i) mortality, and (ii) time value of money. This is, however, not sufficient to comprise a consistent pricing theory of a financial product, such as a private life insurance contract, a pension or an annuity. It is rather remarkable that mathematicians have, for more that 200 years, arrogantly (or more precisely, ignorantly) disregarded any economic principles in pricing such products (or any other insurance products for that matter). It should not come as a surprise that it is rather natural to use the economic theory of contracts to study insurance contracts. Financial pricing of life insurance contracts often starts by assuming the existence of a market of zero coupon bonds. The market price at time zero B0(t) of a default free unit discount bond maturing at the future time t is typically given by the formula B0(t) = E Q{e− R t 0 r(s) }, (1)
منابع مشابه
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR HEALTH ACTUARIES IBNR ESTIMATES: An Introduction
Foreword Over the years, I've heard from many health actuaries of their desire to incorporate more statistical concepts into their daily responsibilities, such as reserve estimates, benefit pricing, etc. At the same time, as a result of greater scrutiny on financial reports because of Sarbanes-Oxley and other measures, the pressure on health actuaries to demonstrate validity in their estimates ...
متن کاملThe improving accuracy of the basic data and the exposed-to-risk of the English life tables.
1. THE English Life Tables Nos. 8 to 13 are based on the population figures by age obtained at the successive censuses of England and Wales from 1911 to 1971 and the deaths recorded in the three calendar years centred on the census year. Over this 60-year period there have been changes in the information sought regarding age at census and death registration and improvements in the exposed-to-ri...
متن کاملSource of Earnings Analysis for Property-Casualty Insurers
Source of earnings analysis has long been a staple of life insurance policy pricing and profitability monitoring. It has grown in importance with the advent of universal life insurance and of similar contracts with non-guaranteed benefits or charges. SFAS 97 now mandates the use of source of earnings analysis for GAAP reporting of universal life-type contracts. Source of earnings analysis is eq...
متن کاملMultivariate High Order Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting for Car Road Accidents
In this paper, we have presented a new multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting method. This method assumes mfactors with one main factor of interest. History of past three years is used for making new forecasts. This new method is applied in forecasting total number of car accidents in Belgium using four secondary factors. We also make comparison of our proposed method with existing methods ...
متن کاملStochastic Mortality made Easy
The purpose of this paper is to give actuaries an easy‐to‐use approach to modelling stochastic mortality. Whilst the approach described can be used with tailor‐made projections, it can also be applied to published base tables and improvement factors. The methodology is not particularly new or ground‐breaking; however, it is hopefully accessible and will allow actuaries to use a stochastic app...
متن کامل